Why We R Naught Wanting Smallpox to Happen Again!

In unit 3 of my Disease class, we learned about, the different type of epidemic and the levels that one can reach. We also learned about R naughts, which is how many people can get sick/infected from one person. Next, we learned about correlation and causation, correlation is when two events during the same time period have the same rates (one not really causing the other). Causation, is the same thing, but they are caused by one and another. For my action project, we had to pick a disease that has become an epidemic. When we do that, we had to find out what the R naught of it is, where it has happened, and talk about factors that might lead into it. The purpose of this was to see how some epidemics are caused by a lot of different things, and to see how infectious one can be. The disease I chose was smallpox, mainly because I have always been interested in how it was used as biological weapon for war a lot, and wanted to know why they use that one. The only real challenge to this was mainly that, it was hard to find different factors, that would be on a certain website we used to make our graphs, to correlate the correlation and causation factors of a disease.

Smallpox is an infectious disease, where it can be very hard to know when you have it, causing people to spread it around more. It is a disease that comes from the variola virus, and the incubation period can take from 7 to 17 days. In that time it is able to spread to other people, without them knowing until it is too late. The type of symptoms that will be shown are high fever, vomiting, back pains, those are the starting ones. The one where you know you have smallpox is when a rash starts to form on the head, hands, feet, chest, and soon everywhere; after those that have happened, blisters will start to form on the rashes and they will have a clear liquid in them and soon pus will be in them.

The R naught of this disease can range from 5 to 7, meaning from one person, 5 to 7 can get infected from that person. As I said before, it is hard to tell when you have until it’s too late and you have passed it on to others. From that, it should be able to tell how this can lead to big epidemics. The first cited one was from the thirteen colonies when the British would bring the disease to people that have never been exposed to it before, Native Americans. Soon it started to spread all over the world, but in different time periods, not making it a pandemic, another area in which it has spread would be Australia in 1828. From that date it just proves that disease is really dangerous and go anywhere and be anywhere. The area I want to focus on more is when it was in India in 1974 when smallpox, which was the most recent case of a smallpox epidemic, which happened in January and finished in May. In this time it killed 15,000 people in that time. Now both of those are very dense in population, meaning people would be living together in a close environment, and this is one of the biggest factors. Another factor that should be addressed, is the lack of doctors in some areas, now even if there aren’t in some, we need more doctors to help it be contained or prevented.

It is eradicated today and is not seen anymore because there is a vaccine made for it, but even the vaccine can be a problem; this is because if too many people get the vaccine in one area, it can spread faster than the actual virus itself. In 1979, it was declared eradicated, but it is believed that WHO or the CDC have some samples of it just for study, or for biological warfare. Prevention is one of the hardest things to do since it can spread without anyone knowing, so the main prevention to do for people in that area is stay away from anyone that is showing symptoms, and for a city or the whole area I would actually say to get more people interested in being a doctor, so they know ways to help the community. Just as a prevention tip for everyone is always cleaning your hands so that if you are in contact with someone; or with someone with the disease, if needed to go out just wear a mask so people aren’t contaminated with it.

NVA "Smallpox Graph" 2015. Gapminder

The picture above shows how drought, or when water is more available, the disease is more likely to show up in India. This shows, that smallpox could actually appear more when the water is good, meaning people will be drinking water  a lot, and when that happens it is easier for people to possibly drink from an infected person’s drink.

NVA "Areas that have had Smallpox" 2015. Gapminder

References:

“Smallpox” Mayo Clinic. Aug 16, 2014

“Smallpox Vaccine Overview” CDC. Feb 7, 2007

“Smallpox” IDHP. n.d.

“Frequently asked questions and answers on smallpox” WHO. n.d.

“Samantha Farley “1974 Smallpox Epidemic of India” Prezi. 2012